With October only days away, and the end of the year in sight, we thought it was time to offer an FHA mortgage rate prediction and forecast for 2015. The following projection is based on insight provided by various economists and analysts, who have been cited accordingly. So without further ado, here is your 2015 FHA loan rate prediction.
Prediction: FHA Rates Will Be Higher at the End of 2015
Ask a dozen economists what the average rate for a 30-year FHA mortgage loan will be this time next year, and you’ll probably get 12 different answers. But there’s one thing most of the housing analysts agree on. The general consensus and forecast is that FHA rates will be higher at the end of 2015 than they are right now. As a result, borrowers will pay more to obtain financing.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that they are not expected to rise by much.
Let’s start with one of the most research-driven predictions available anywhere: the Freddie Mac forecast and outlook. Freddie Mac is the government-controlled corporation that buys and sells mortgage-backed securities. They’ve been running a weekly forecast of the mortgage market since the 1970s. Their in-house economists routinely provide forecasts based on data analysis and economic expectations.
Here is their prediction for 30-year mortgage rates (including FHA) through 2015.
The chart above is part of Freddie Mac’s “U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook.” I created this line graph by using an interactive tool based on their economists’ predictions for mortgage rates. This chart shows historical trends dating back to 2013, along with their forecast and projection for 2015. Historical data were included to give you a sense of where we’ve been, in terms of FHA loan rates.
As you can see from this prediction, Freddie Mac expects the 30-year average to rise gradually through 2015, ending the year at or around 5.0%. By way of comparison, the average rate for a 30-year home loan at the time this article was published was 4.23%. So if this forecast proves accurate, FHA rates could rise by around 75 basis points (0.75%) between now and the end of next year.
Same Data, But a Narrower Time Frame
In the chart below, I’ve narrowed Freddie Mac’s forecast to show Q3 2014 to Q4 2015. At this level, the line clearly illustrates their projection for the next 12 months or so. It shows gradually rising rates.
So there we have our first FHA mortgage rate prediction for 2015: Freddie Mac projects that the 30-year loan will hit 5.0% by the fourth quarter of 2015. We are currently compiling projections and commentary from other sources as well. So stay tuned!
Disclaimer: This article includes forward-looking statements and data from third-party sources. Such information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Due to ever-changing conditions, no one can predict the future of FHA loan rates with complete accuracy. We make no claims, assertions or guarantees about future trends within the mortgage market or the broader economy. This article has been provided for reference purposes only and does constitute financial advice or assurances.